H.R. 5167 — Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Intelligence Authorization Act — would clear the House (95%) but only 6% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 315 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 236–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	279 [194–406]	90%
suspension	62%	337 [215–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R). Latest action (2025-11-28): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 339.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).