H.R. 5210 — To make technical amendments to update statutory references to certain provisions classified to title 2, United States Code, title 50, United States Code, and title 52, United States Code, and to correct related technic…

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To make technical amendments to update statutory references to certai… — would clear the House (94%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

22%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 315 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 205–416 (quartiles 247–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	281 [172–410]	88%
suspension	62%	336 [216–417]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jamie Raskin (D). Latest action (2025-09-10): Ordered to be Reported by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).