H.R. 5213 — No Federal Funds for Cashless Bail Act

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

No Federal Funds for Cashless Bail Act — on the calendar, quiet for 33 days; 31% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

31%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

13%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 31% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 307 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–415 (quartiles 226–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [192–407]	88%
suspension	62%	325 [213–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Elise M. Stefanik (R). Latest action (2026-05-04): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 554.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).