H.R. 5242 — To repeal the Second Chance Amendment Act of 2022 and the Incarceration Reduction Amendment Act of 2016.

1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

To repeal the Second Chance Amendment Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 9% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 9% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–414 (quartiles 222–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	271 [195–403]	88%
suspension	62%	323 [211–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: David Kustoff (R). Latest action (2025-10-14): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 293.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).