H.R. 5244 — To provide for the authorities of the Secretary of State.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To provide for the authorities of the Secretary of State. — would clear the House (91%) but only 2% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

13%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 91% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 2% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 203–415 (quartiles 225–385). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	262 [174–401]	82%
suspension	62%	330 [213–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Cory Mills (R). Latest action (2025-09-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 27 - 20.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).