H.R. 5246 — To provide for the political affairs authorities of the Department of State, and for other purposes.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To provide for the political affairs authorities of the Department of… — would clear the House (92%) but only 1% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 306 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–416 (quartiles 225–386). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	261 [165–390]	81%
suspension	62%	334 [214–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Latest action (2025-09-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 49 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).