H.R. 5248 — To ensure the alignment of economic and foreign policies, to position the Department of State to reflect that economic security is national security, and for other purposes.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To ensure the alignment of economic and foreign policies, to position… — would clear the House (93%) but only 1% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–416 (quartiles 223–386). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	263 [176–398]	84%
suspension	62%	328 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Young Kim (R). Latest action (2025-09-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 28 - 22.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).