← all forecasts
H.R. 530 — ACES Act
26%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
ACES Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 56% puts enactment at 26%.
→
26%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–96
(quartiles 54–88). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 56%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [48–97] |
95% |
| passage | 81% |
69 [48–96] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: August Pfluger (R). Latest action (2025-05-06):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Veterans' Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).