H.R. 5300 — Department of State Policy Provisions Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Department of State Policy Provisions Act — would clear the House (93%) but only 2% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 2% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 309 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–415 (quartiles 232–386). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	268 [182–398]	86%
suspension	62%	334 [215–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Brian J. Mast (R). Latest action (2025-09-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 27 - 24.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).