H.R. 5343 — Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products Act

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Ensuring Patient Access to Critical Breakthrough Products A… — would clear the House (98%, 51 cosponsors) but only 15% to ever get the vote.

15%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

34%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 98% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 15% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 335 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–417 (quartiles 269–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	317 [209–415]	97%
suspension	62%	345 [220–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Blake D. Moore (R). Latest action (2025-09-17): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 37 - 3.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).