H.R. 5347 — Health Care Efficiency Through Flexibility Act

9%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Health Care Efficiency Through Flexibility Act — reported and queued; 34% to reach the floor, 9% to become law.

34%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 34% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 326 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 252–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	302 [205–414]	93%
suspension	62%	341 [219–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Vern Buchanan (R). Latest action (2026-05-21): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 44 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).