H.R. 5436 — To amend title 38, United States Code, to prohibit an educational institution from withholding a transcript from an individual who pursued a course or program of education at such institution using Post-9/11 educational…

11%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To amend title 38, United States Code, to prohibit an educational ins… — reported and queued, quiet for 23 days; 37% to reach the floor, 11% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

31%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 337 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 215–418 (quartiles 278–407). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	307 [200–415]	93%
suspension	62%	356 [228–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: John W. Mannion (D). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).