H.R. 5438 — Incentivize Savings Act

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Incentivize Savings Act — would clear the House (89%, 69 cosponsors) but only 15% to ever get the vote.

15%

reaches a floor vote

96%

passes if voted (stage model)

33%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 89% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 15% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 278 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 191–407 (quartiles 213–360). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	258 [186–386]	85%
suspension	62%	290 [200–410]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Richard McCormick (R). Latest action (2026-02-04): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 25 - 19.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).