H.R. 5497 — Apostle Islands National Park and Preserve Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Apostle Islands National Park and Preserve Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 17% to ever get the vote.

17%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

10%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–416 (quartiles 222–387). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	266 [193–397]	87%
suspension	62%	326 [213–417]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Thomas P. Tiffany (R). Latest action (2026-02-11): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 20 - 17.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).