H.R. 5498 — Small Business Health Options Awareness Act of 2025

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Small Business Health Options Awareness Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–415 (quartiles 221–390). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	267 [185–396]	87%
suspension	62%	327 [212–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Beth Van Duyne (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 13 - 11.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).