H.R. 5543 — Baltic Security Assessment Act of 2025

10%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Baltic Security Assessment Act — real floor momentum (55% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 45 days); 96% if called.

55%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

10%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 55% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 336 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–417 (quartiles 283–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	304 [188–413]	92%
suspension	62%	355 [227–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Wesley Bell (D). Latest action (2026-04-22): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 41 - 3.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).