H.R. 5577 — NFIP Extension Act of 2026

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

NFIP Extension Act — on the calendar, quiet for 142 days; 21% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 21% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 307 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–415 (quartiles 223–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [195–400]	89%
suspension	62%	326 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andrew R. Garbarino (R). Latest action (2026-01-15): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 391.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).