H.R. 5578 — Expanding Whistleblower Protections for Contractors Act of 2025

10%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Expanding Whistleblower Protections for Contractors Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 17% to ever get the vote.

17%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

61%

survives downstream

10%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 330 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 266–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	287 [180–410]	90%
suspension	62%	357 [229–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Robert Garcia (D). Latest action (2025-12-02): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 44 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).