H.R. 5638 — Geothermal Royalty Reform Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Geothermal Royalty Reform Act — on the calendar; 38% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 286 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–412 (quartiles 216–368). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	262 [200–385]	86%
suspension	62%	300 [208–414]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mike Kennedy (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 575.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).