H.R. 5682 — To take certain land in the State of California into trust for the benefit of the Pechanga Band of Indians, and for other purposes.

25%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

To take certain land in the State of California into trust for the be… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 43% puts enactment at 25%.

✓

passed the House

→

25%

downstream: Senate + President

25%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–92 (quartiles 52–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 43% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	65 [45–94]	92%
passage	81%	61 [45–90]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Darrell Issa (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Indian Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).