H.R. 5694 — ARTIST Act

16%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

ARTIST Act — real floor momentum (77% to a vote, on the calendar); 92% if called.

77%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

21%

survives downstream

16%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 301 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 205–415 (quartiles 220–385). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	264 [184–396]	85%
suspension	62%	323 [212–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Nicholas J. Begich III (R). Latest action (2026-06-02): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 588.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).