H.R. 5723 — Fraud Reduction And Uncovering Deception (FRAUD) in VA Disability Exams Act

13%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Fraud Reduction And Uncovering Deception (FRAUD) in VA Disa… — reported and queued, quiet for 23 days; 32% to reach the floor, 13% to become law.

32%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

43%

survives downstream

13%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 32% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 336 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 276–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	296 [195–414]	92%
suspension	62%	360 [231–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mark Takano (D). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).