H.R. 5778 — Improving SBA Engagement on Employee Ownership Act

7%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Improving SBA Engagement on Employee Ownership Act — on the calendar, quiet for 171 days; 37% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 331 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–416 (quartiles 276–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	295 [192–412]	91%
suspension	62%	352 [230–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: LaMonica McIver (D). Latest action (2025-12-17): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 358.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).