H.R. 5788 — 504 Program Risk Oversight Act

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Program Risk Oversight Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 64% puts enactment at 11%.

✓

passed the House

→

11%

downstream: Senate + President

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–96 (quartiles 56–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 64% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	73 [46–97]	94%
passage	81%	69 [42–96]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: Derek Tran (D). Latest action (2026-01-26): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).