H.R. 580 — Unfunded Mandates Accountability and Transparency Act of 2025

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Unfunded Mandates Accountability and Transparency Act — on the calendar, quiet for 144 days; 28% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

15%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 320 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 238–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	273 [207–395]	93%
suspension	62%	349 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Virginia Foxx (R). Latest action (2026-01-13): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 381.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).