H.R. 5877 — Combatting Money Laundering in Cyber Crime Act of 2025

12%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Combatting Money Laundering in Cyber Crime Act — real floor momentum (70% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 52 days); 94% if called.

70%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 311 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–415 (quartiles 229–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	288 [192–408]	90%
suspension	62%	324 [212–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Scott Fitzgerald (R). Latest action (2026-04-15): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 530.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).