H.R. 5891 — Withhold Member Pay During Shutdowns Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Withhold Member Pay During Shutdowns Act — would clear the House (95%) but only 13% to ever get the vote.

13%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 13% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 308 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 224–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	275 [202–402]	90%
suspension	62%	328 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bryan Steil (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 10 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).