H.R. 59 — Mens Rea Reform Act of 2025

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Mens Rea Reform Act — would clear the House (90%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 90% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 287 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 200–412 (quartiles 214–376). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	265 [190–396]	85%
suspension	62%	301 [203–414]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andy Biggs (R). Latest action (2025-06-10): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 15 - 13.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).