H.R. 5929 — Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resiliency Act

7%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resiliency Act — reported and queued, quiet for 46 days; 38% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 294 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–414 (quartiles 217–380). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	267 [198–389]	90%
suspension	62%	311 [207–416]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andy Barr (R). Latest action (2026-04-21): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).