H.R. 5999 — To amend title 38, United States Code, to direct the Secretary of Veterans Affairs to furnish an opioid antagonist to a veteran without requiring a prescription or copayment.

18%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To amend title 38, United States Code, to direct the Secretary of Vet… — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 23 days); 96% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

40%

survives downstream

18%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 339 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 213–418 (quartiles 287–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	302 [194–415]	92%
suspension	62%	362 [231–419]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Herbert C. Conaway, Jr. (D). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).