H.R. 6084 — ERISA Litigation Reform Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

ERISA Litigation Reform Act — would clear the House (89%) but only 3% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 89% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 3% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 277 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 194–406 (quartiles 213–357). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	257 [193–391]	86%
suspension	62%	289 [199–409]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Randy Fine (R). Latest action (2026-03-17): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 19 - 13.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).