H.R. 6297 — PEACE Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

PEACE Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 327 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 253–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	288 [190–411]	90%
suspension	62%	350 [224–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Randy Fine (R). Latest action (2025-12-03): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 49 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).