H.R. 633 — TAKE IT DOWN Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

TAKE IT DOWN Act — would clear the House (97%, 41 cosponsors) but only 17% to ever get the vote.

17%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 323 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 244–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	300 [206–414]	94%
suspension	62%	337 [215–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Latest action (2025-04-28): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 59.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).