H.R. 6332 — To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 10660 Page Avenue in Fairfax, Virginia, as the "Congressman Gerald E. Connolly Post Office Building".

30%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located… — reported and queued, quiet for 186 days; 38% to reach the floor, 30% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

79%

survives downstream

30%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 335 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 278–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	293 [193–413]	90%
suspension	62%	360 [238–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: James R. Walkinshaw (D). Latest action (2025-12-02): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 38 - 2.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).