H.R. 6428 — To require the Secretary of State to submit a report on participation in educational and cultural exchange programs.

6%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To require the Secretary of State to submit a report on participation… — reported and queued, quiet for 72 days; 28% to reach the floor, 6% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

23%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 329 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 270–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	289 [185–411]	88%
suspension	62%	353 [231–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ami Bera (D). Latest action (2026-03-26): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 42 - 3.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).