← all forecasts
H.R. 6431 — New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficiency Act
10%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficien… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 59% puts enactment at 10%.
→
10%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 70 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–96
(quartiles 54–89). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 59%
(simple-majority P = 95%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [48–96] |
95% |
| passage | 81% |
70 [49–96] |
95% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Mike Carey (R). Latest action (2026-04-28):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).