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H.R. 6500 — AGOA Extension Act
12%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
AGOA Extension Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 52% puts enactment at 12%.
→
12%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–96
(quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 52%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
70 [44–97] |
93% |
| passage | 81% |
66 [43–95] |
92% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Jason Smith (R). Latest action (2026-02-10):
Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 320.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).