H.R. 6624 — Biological Intellectual Property Protection Act of 2025

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Biological Intellectual Property Protection Act — real floor momentum (44% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 45 days); 97% if called.

44%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 44% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 322 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 244–397). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	286 [206–409]	93%
suspension	62%	344 [221–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Warren Davidson (R). Latest action (2026-04-22): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 30 - 14.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).