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H.R. 681 — To amend the Act of August 9, 1955 (commonly known as the “Long-Term Leasing Act”), to authorize leases of up to 99 years for land in the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe Reservation and land held in trust for the Wampanoag Trib…
45%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To amend the Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 61% puts enactment at 45%.
→
45%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 41–96
(quartiles 55–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 61%
(simple-majority P = 90%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
70 [42–96] |
91% |
| passage | 81% |
67 [41–96] |
90% |
Receipts
Sponsor: William R. Keating (D). Latest action (2026-05-20):
Committee on Indian Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).