H.R. 6916 — Federal Program Integrity and Fraud Prevention Act of 2025

17%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Federal Program Integrity and Fraud Prevention Act — reported and queued, quiet for 80 days; 38% to reach the floor, 17% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

46%

survives downstream

17%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 307 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–415 (quartiles 225–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [199–399]	88%
suspension	62%	325 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Keith Self (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 38 - 2.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).