H.R. 6998 — Renewed Hope Act

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Renewed Hope Act — reported and queued, quiet for 144 days; 24% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

24%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

16%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 24% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 237–397). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	298 [201–411]	92%
suspension	62%	326 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Laurel M. Lee (R). Latest action (2026-01-13): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).