H.R. 7003 — BIS STRENGTH Act

51%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

BIS STRENGTH Act — real floor momentum (73% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 45 days); 96% if called.

73%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

70%

survives downstream

51%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 230–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	273 [202–401]	90%
suspension	62%	342 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jefferson Shreve (R). Latest action (2026-04-22): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 42 - 2.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).