H.R. 7006 — Financial Services and General Government and National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2026

50%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Financial Services and General Government and National Security, Depa… — must-pass class. Waiting on the senate, quiet for 142 days; the 50% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

✓

passed the House

→

50%

downstream: Senate + President

50%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–96 (quartiles 53–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 52% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	70 [44–96]	91%
passage	81%	67 [44–95]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tom Cole (R). Latest action (2026-01-15): Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).