H.R. 7058 — Foreign Adversary AI Risk Assessment and Diplomacy Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Foreign Adversary AI Risk Assessment and Diplomacy Act — would clear the House (93%) but only 7% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 299 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–415 (quartiles 220–381). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	261 [194–386]	85%
suspension	62%	322 [212–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Michael Baumgartner (R). Latest action (2026-03-26): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 45 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).