H.R. 7085 — To amend the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to repeal certain disclosure requirements related to conflict minerals, and for other purposes.

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

To amend the Securities Exchange Act — on the calendar, quiet for 79 days; 28% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 303 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–415 (quartiles 222–388). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	265 [193–395]	88%
suspension	62%	326 [213–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bill Huizenga (R). Latest action (2026-03-19): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 481.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).