H.R. 7127 — Restoring the Secondary Trading Market Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Restoring the Secondary Trading Market Act — on the calendar, quiet for 73 days; 23% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

23%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 23% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 301 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–415 (quartiles 221–387). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	270 [204–393]	92%
suspension	62%	320 [212–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Daniel Meuser (R). Latest action (2026-03-25): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 493.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).