H.R. 7128 — TRIA Program Reauthorization Act of 2026

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

TRIA Program Reauthorization Act — real floor momentum (51% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 79 days); 96% if called.

51%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

10%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 51% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 311 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 230–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	276 [204–402]	90%
suspension	62%	332 [215–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mike Flood (R). Latest action (2026-03-19): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 482.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).