H.R. 725 — Crow Revenue Act

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Crow Revenue Act — on the calendar, quiet for 145 days; 23% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

23%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 23% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 292 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–414 (quartiles 216–379). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	253 [189–386]	87%
suspension	62%	315 [211–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Troy Downing (R). Latest action (2026-01-12): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 375.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).