H.R. 7250 — To reauthorize the Fort Peck Reservation Rural Water System Act of 2000.

15%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

To reauthorize the Fort Peck Reservation Rural Water System… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 51% puts enactment at 15%.

✓

passed the House

→

15%

downstream: Senate + President

15%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–95 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 51% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	67 [46–96]	93%
passage	81%	67 [47–95]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Troy Downing (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).