H.R. 7258 — Energy Emergency Leadership Act

11%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Energy Emergency Leadership Act — real floor momentum (79% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 26 days); 96% if called.

79%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

14%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 324 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 250–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	291 [194–410]	92%
suspension	62%	344 [220–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Laurel M. Lee (R). Latest action (2026-05-11): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 562.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).